Torquay United V Cheltenham

[Hubert Parry]

I am undecided as to whether or not we are better than last year. On paper, I feel we are better (and so does Lee Mansell). However, on paper, and on the pitch are completely different entities. We have lost Marlon Pack, but that is the only influential player to leave over the summer (Carter was pants, and Mohamed maybe had three decent games last season). In fact, I believe that building the team around Pack caused our poor goal tally last season.

[Plymouth Gull]

Sounds a bit like us the summer after you beat us in the playoffs. We'd lost Bobby O, Eunan and Mark Ellis from the spine of the squad, but the general consensus was that despite losing those three, we had strengthened the squad as a whole, despite the starting XI being weakened. It didn't get us very far though.. hopefully the same doesn't happen to you though as I fancy you to pick up sooner or later and I have money on it!!

[usagullmichigan]

2-1 to Cheltenham.

[Hubert Parry]

Nick - I see our problem as almost being the opposite - our squad is perhaps weaker (it is certainly smaller) but our starting XI is stronger (this is perhaps due to spending higher wages). Our season could go either way, but it would be very disappointing if it did fall in a similar manner to Torquay. There is room in the budget to make changes in January if necessary, but Yates has to start accumulating the wins or the pressure from the supporters could mount. Part of the problem for many of us is that his job is too safe.

[wodger of awabia]

Ok, a look at the first 7 league games of each of the last 5 seasons (including this one and since we returned to L2) shows us the following numbers:

2013/14: P7, W1, D3, L3, F6, A11, GD-5, Pts 6

2012/13: P7, W2, D4, L1, F8, A5, GD+3, Pts 10

2011/12: P7, W3, D3, L1, F10, A7, GD+3, Pts 12

2010/11: P7, W4, D2, L1, F10, A3, GD+7 Pts 15

2009/12: P7, W2, D0, L5, F9, A12, GD-3, Pts 6

We see then that 2010/11 (second year under Buckle) gained us the most points and the best goal difference from our opening 7 games. We see that this season has produced joint fewest points and the worst goal difference. So, relatively, a poor start. However, these numbers alone do not represent the reality of football.

If we apply the Ferrarilover Scale to the opposition we have faced in those 7 games, we see the following:

2013/14 is rated at 67%

2012/13 at 67%

2011/12 at 46%

2010/11 at 56%

2009/10 at 72%

Thus, 2009/10, when we gained joint fewest points (joint with this year) and had the second worst goal difference (ahead only of this year), we had the hardest start. This year's start was the joint second toughest, and the two years where we scored a good number of points, we had relatively simple starts (certainly much more simple than we have enjoyed this year). For clarity, the hardest possible start would have been 100% and the simplest just 19%. The average start would be 57%. So, we can say that this year we have enjoyed a tougher than usual and tougher than average opening run of fixtures.

Looking ahead to the next 7 games, we see that this year, we face teams with a FS score of 58% (although, for reasons of promotion and relegation, this number might not be truly representative). These matches should be slightly more fruitful than the last 7, but not necessarily much.

Knill has been dealt a baptism of pointy, fiery things. To write off him and his team already has always been madness, just now it is madness for an additional reason.

Matt.

Are you trying to say that the Farrarilover Scale is an unscientific load of crap, based on your opinions of how good or bad other L2 teams are?

[jonnyfive]

On the Jonnyfive Scale of Having Too Much Time on One's Hands, our chum has again scored a 10!

Utter bilge.

[ferrarilover]

Nope, it's based on maths, quite a lot of it, in fact. Unfortunately, it wasn't ever designed to be used over such a long period of time. It is imperfect, it certainly wouldn't stand the scrutiny of any formal assessment, but for the purposes of basic comparative analysis among friends on the Internet, it's perfectly adequate.

Matt.

[chunkygull]

ya didnt have to tell us twice, we got it the first time. =D

[ferrarilover]

Ha, sorry Chunk, the site was doing its bloody logging me out every two seconds thing.

Admin: there used to be a little red cross on posts to delete them, what happened to that?

Matt.

[Southampton Gull]

You lost your Mod privileges

[FavGull]

Very much looking forward to a weekend in the Westcountry. Hoping that the two hours from 3pm Saturday produce the kind of free flowing and effective football which elevates this to the most enjoyable couple of hours of the weekend, but alas I feel that the majority of that time will be quite a nervy, uneasy experience, with the desired result at the end.

In any case, plenty of beers, a couple of birthdays, friends and family will ensure a good weekend is had no doubt. Three points though would top it off very nicely (and not the sort you get for speeding down the A303 on a Friday evening to make last orders!).

Clearly it is a fairly big match for this stage of the season, and will go some way to dictating our immediate direction and mood over the next few games (as most games/results do of course, but it feels that this one may more than others). We are all hoping to see something from somebody (and there are a few candidates) which has been lacking so far this season, which could provide the impetus to push on. Or perhaps not. We will see.

[Kernowgull]

Isn't Benners injured?

[Yellow4life]

My concern for this one is that they have scored a lot of goals- 7 in the last 3 games. Conceding 7 as well (2-2, 2-2, 3-3) If we can't score more than 1, then we won't win this one.

I'm going 2-1 us. Hawley and Chapell.

[AustrianAndyGull]

My concern for this one is that they have scored a lot of goals- 7 in the last 3 games. Conceding 7 as well (2-2, 2-2, 3-3) If we can't score more than 1, then we won't win this one. I'm going 2-1 us. Hawley and Chapell.

Looks like it's back to the good old Ling days, sigh.

[Behind-the-Gulls]

Think we will win a home game for the first time this season, tomorrow.
I'm going for 3-0:Hawley,Bodin and Downes. 2,650. 320 Cheltenham fans.