Torquay United v Nuneaton Town – Saturday 6th September 2014

[Colorado Gull]

Are we back to winning ways? Finally after three consecutive, very frustrating draws? It was a good result last weekend against Lincoln, showing that we can score without Ryan Bowman. However, thankfully, the main striker will be back for the game on Saturday. Will we see the pairing of Duane Ofori-Acheampong and Ryan Bowman for the first time? It’s a good bet that Hargreaves will start the big guy up top, seeing as he works incredibly hard, scored two goals last weekend and really should have had a hat-trick. I don’t think we will see a change at the back, despite Aaron Downes giving away another penalty against Lincoln. The defender’s performance was faultless apart from that according to the United fans that went to the game. Levi Ives will be back (I’m guessing, seeing as he was away due to International duty) so we may see him in the starting XI replacing Cruise. However, Tom did have an improved performance against the Imps, so perhaps he’ll stay put? I’d personally prefer to see Ives back in the side.

As for the midfield, it’s really the case of what formation Hargreaves will play. Louis Briscoe went off with an injury last week and hasn’t looked 100% fit yet this season. But if he is okay and he starts (which I don’t think is the best thing to do, but managers love to stick to a team that has just won a game), then I’m not sure the formation will change from 4-3-3 to 4-4-2. Another question is will Wakefield play? He looked average when he came on against Aldershot, had the same sort of performance against Lincoln and was replaced by Jordan Chappell early in the second half. If he does play, then the formation has to be 4-4-2, seeing as we shouldn’t drop Richards (who played well last week and scored a very good goal) and definitely not captain and our best player, Luke Young (who is on 4 yellow cards, one more and it’s a ban).

The forward line depends on what formation is set out, like the midfield. If it’s 4-4-2, then we should see Courtney Cameron on the wing, if 4-4-3, then more of a striker/winger position. Personally, I would like to see the 4-4-2 formation. Bowman and Ofori up front, with Cameron and Chappell on the wing. We will score with Bowman in the side, no question. If we can get Ofori in the right position and he’s got his scoring boots on from last Saturday, we should see the ball in the back of the net a good number of times. So here is the team I’d like to see for Saturday’s game, I think this is our strongest side at the moment;

Rice

Tonge
MacDonald
Downes
Ives

Chappell
Young (c)
Richards
Cameron

Bowman
Ofori-Acheampong

Substitutes
Seabright
Pearce
Wakefield
Ajala
Yeoman

As for the visitors for Saturday’s game, Nuneaton Town. The small club from Warwickshire, founded in 1889. Nicknamed ‘The Boro’. Why? Well, In 1889 Nuneaton St. Nicholas were the first team to play senior football within Nuneaton. Five years later they changed their name to Nuneaton Town, and played until 1937 when the club was disbanded. However, two days later Nuneaton Borough FC were founded. In 2008 the club was liquidated, and due to a FA ruling were reformed as Nuneaton Town – suffering a two division demotion. The club is still known as 'The Boro' by its supporters. More on the history of Nuneaton when we play them on Saturday 14th March 2015. I know, I can tell you’re all so disappointed. I didn’t get this stuff from Wikipedia or anything, I know everything about Nuneaton Town, but do check Wikipedia out for the off chance (if you so desire) you may get something interesting on Nuneaton Town, but I would wait for March, it will be worth it.

This season hasn’t been too kind for Nuneaton so far. Losing their opening game of the season at home to Eastleigh 3-0, after that drawing 0-0 to Grimsby away, and then losing 3 games in a row against Wrexham (1-0), Barnet (2-0) and Braintree (1-0). However, last Saturday, they finally won (and finally scored...two in fact) beating Altrincham 2-1 at home in front of a massive crowd of 774. Altrincham gave the Boro a scare, scoring in the 87th minute, but they held on and secured their first three points of the season. So the visitors for Saturday’s game sit in 18th position and will be looking for back to back wins, just like United. Nonetheless and I know I’ve been saying this every week, this should be a game that Torquay should win and with the side we’ve got, we should win comfortably. But you never know.

Going by a lot of mathematics and calculations from the data of the season so far, Torquay have a 43.7% probability of winning, with 30.5% of leading at half time. The probability of a draw at half time is 49.3%, but that goes down to 35% for a full time result. As for the visitors, it’s a probability of 21.3% for a Nuneaton win, leading at half time sees a probability of 20.2%. What’s more, there is a 37.95% chance of Torquay being unable to score, while it is 56.06% for Nuneaton. One goal for Torquay is 36.77%, while it goes down incredibly for Nuneaton, being a 32.45% chance of them to score a single goal. A 17.81% chance of Torquay scoring two goals and 9.39% for Nuneaton to score a double. 5.75% for United to score three, while Nuneaton to score three is at 1.81%. For United to score four, that chance is at 1.71%. Has anyone thrown up yet reading that? I was bored and making an excuse not to write my personal statement. Of course, the stats mean nothing when it comes to football, but it’s interesting.

As every team does, it adds to their squad. Seeing as Nuneaton won their last game and won for the first time, I really much doubt that there will be a change to their starting XI, unless there is an injury that I don’t know about. Nevertheless, here is the squad the Boro had for their game against Altrincham;

01 Charles-Cook
17 Smith (John - 89' )
03 Franklin
24 Geohaghon
02 Starosta
07 Armson (Walker - 58' )
22 Dyer
12 Cranston Booked
11 Streete Booked
25 Curran (Brown - 90' )
10 Brown

Substitutes
06 Walker
08 John
16 Vieira
18 Brown
19 Wren

This is a game that United should win, but I said that for the Southport and Dartford game and look what happened there. Both teams will be looking for the win, but with the strong side we have and with Ryan Bowman back in the team, with the Yellow Army cheering the boys, singing as loud as they can with the drum to accompany them, with the shot stopping saves of Martin Rice and no nonsense defending by Angus MacDonald and Aaron Downes, with Luke Young commanding the midfield and using the wingers, especially Cameron, with Courtney’s pace, skill and vision to find Duane Ofori-Acheampong (he can’t bloody miss him) as he gets into space with his strength and composure, with Bowman finding the goal without even looking up, then I think we should get the three points. Failing that, the atmosphere is dire, the officials are even worse, Hargreaves plays the wrong side, Young gets a yellow card, Bowman gets sent off again, Ofori injured, Tonge and Cruise terrible, Downes concedes another penalty, the ball is saved by Rice but somehow goes through his legs, we lose 1-0 at home to Nuneaton and we all go home to kick the dog for an hour.....let’s hope for the best!

COYY.

Main site; http://www.torquayfans.com/2014/torquay ... -2014-3pm/

[lucy6lucy]

Blimey, Albert would be proud of those stats, I almost thought Andy had compiled that. If we are going to get in top 7, we must be beating teams like Nuneaton at home, and that's no disrespect to them.

[brooker]

Is their keeper the same lad who came here last year with Bury and had an absolute shocker of a game? At one point he sliced his kick, then tried to punch it out and missed, and then hoofed it over the popside. Comedy gold. If so he hasn't got great memories of Plainmoor! Would like to see the crowd get behind Ryan on his return, i know he was a tit to get a red, but he's our best attacker. Maybe a chant of "We've got our Bowman back" before kick off will help him out. We're having a few drinks beforehand, so will be loud and proud in front of Danny and the drum on the pop. COYY!

[ethantufcbaker]

Is their keeper the same lad who came here last year with Bury and had an absolute shocker of a game? At one point he sliced his kick, then tried to punch it out and missed, and then hoofed it over the popside. Comedy gold. If so he hasn't got great memories of Plainmoor! Would like to see the crowd get behind Ryan on his return, i know he was a tit to get a red, but he's our best attacker. Maybe a chant of "We've got our Bowman back" before kick off will help him out. We're having a few drinks beforehand, so will be loud and proud in front of Danny and the drum on the pop. COYY!

He is indeed the same and hopefully he does that again :~D

[brucie]

Good summary, - thanks for your hard work. I hate to rain on your parade but your stats/probabilities are nonsense.
The reason for that is that you havn't taken any account of the strength of the opposition we are playing.
Torquay are a 17.81% chance to score two goals? - are you joking.
The betting odds are 1.83 for Torquay to score 2 goals in the match. That equates to Torquay's chance of scoring two as 54.64%.
Clearly taking the match on face value thats a far more accurate assumption than yours.
The odds for a Torquay win are a top price 1.75 (ladbrokes). This equates to a 57.14% chance of Torquay winning the game.
With Bowman back up front with O'Archie, Torquay playing well at home (probably should have had more poaints than they have got) I would say that the chance of a home win is actually 75% (or maybe even higher).
Therefore 1.75 looks a huge value price to me.
You cannot assess statistics without taking account of the oppostion. By your reasoning Torquay would have the same chance of winning if they were playing Man Utd or Nuneaton. Sorry!

[Colorado Gull]

Good summary, - thanks for your hard work. I hate to rain on your parade but your stats/probabilities are nonsense.
The reason for that is that you havn't taken any account of the strength of the opposition we are playing.
Torquay are a 17.81% chance to score two goals? - are you joking.
The betting odds are 1.83 for Torquay to score 2 goals in the match. That equates to Torquay's chance of scoring two as 54.64%.
Clearly taking the match on face value thats a far more accurate assumption than yours.
The odds for a Torquay win are a top price 1.75 (ladbrokes). This equates to a 57.14% chance of Torquay winning the game.
With Bowman back up front with O'Archie, Torquay playing well at home (probably should have had more poaints than they have got) I would say that the chance of a home win is actually 75% (or maybe even higher).
Therefore 1.75 looks a huge value price to me.
You cannot assess statistics without taking account of the oppostion. By your reasoning Torquay would have the same chance of winning if they were playing Man Utd or Nuneaton. Sorry!

I thought you were going to be all positive then Bruice .

This should answer your criticism;

Going by a lot of mathematics and calculations from the data of the season so far

You are correct though that we should be scoring more than two goals and beat Nuneaton (as I believe I also stated somewhere in the OP). I didn't take the opposition into account for those statistics, just from the data of the season so far (as I quoted), they were just a little interesting from what has happened.

En plus, I believe I also said in the OP that the statistics were pretty pointless, just something to do instead of my Sixth form work.

[hector]

Good preview again, Danny - well done!

I would agree with the team you have selected as well, although I am wondering when Pearce will figure but as you suggest, Downes is making it very difficult to drop him.

We really ought to win this fixture - which would be my first win I have witnessed since December when we beat Southend (even though I have only missed a few home games (all on Tuesdays when we have tended to win). That was also the last time Torquay won at home on a saturday - in 2014, we have yet to win a saturday home game. It would be only the 3rd win I have seen since April 2013.

[Jeff]

Is their keeper the same lad who came here last year with Bury and had an absolute shocker of a game? At one point he sliced his kick, then tried to punch it out and missed, and then hoofed it over the popside. Comedy gold. If so he hasn't got great memories of Plainmoor! Would like to see the crowd get behind Ryan on his return, i know he was a tit to get a red, but he's our best attacker. Maybe a chant of "We've got our Bowman back" before kick off will help him out. We're having a few drinks beforehand, so will be loud and proud in front of Danny and the drum on the pop. COYY!

Yes it is, but apparently he is quite highly rated (!) which I found surprising.

They also won't be including Jordan Cranston who started for them last time out - he was only on a short term deal and has since signed for Notts County. They fact he has stepped up to L1 suggests he had some ability, so I'm not too upset that he won't be turning out against us!

[Boroughbrad]

Firstly what a fine looking forum you guys are lucky to have. Hello from Nuneaton, sure you guys have this all the time but we are planning a late morning arrival down there, do bars down by the harbour welcome travelling supporters or do we need to keep shirts etc covered up. Looking forward to this away day, we are just starting to click

[Dave]

Firstly what a fine looking forum you guys are lucky to have. Hello from Nuneaton, sure you guys have this all the time but we are planning a late morning arrival down there, do bars down by the harbour welcome travelling supporters or do we need to keep shirts etc covered up. Looking forward to this away day, we are just starting to click

I never known the pubs down the town refusing to let away fans in, at the ground, swimming pool end you'll Boots and Laces , away fans always welcome in there as well, no need to cover shirts, the overwhelming majority of home fans are friendly and welcoming. You might want to add 30 minutes to your travel time though( if by car), major roadwork's on the A380 between Newton Abbot and Torquay , hit that area at the wrong time and you'll get held up.

[Dave]

Nice write up Danny and your name in red as well ( ) Agree with your line up regards Saturday, however do not agree it's our strongest, even at this time. Dale Tonge in what I've seen and match reports read has done nothing wrong been pretty solid, Angus MacDonald barely put a foot wrong at Centre Back, is why some are hell bent on having Angus moved over to RB and Tonge blasted of the face of this earth is beyond me.

Aaron Downes was faultless against Aldershot, but has the odd balls up in him, Pearce will come back in to the side maybe Saturday, Ives is the best left back at the club no doubt, but CH has to be careful with him, 17 with only 1 senior start. One of the biggest problems we have in English football full stop is, every time a quality youngster comes through at any level, fans want him played every week, managers have a habit of doing that because they have no one better, then us English fans wonder why our best players are all burnt out, or injury prone by 28, simple, because there over played to young, CH and our club has a duty of care for all our players including Levi Ives.

We all know what Bowman did v Southport, he's had his punishment 3 game ban and club fine, no body needs punishing over and over again for the same mistake, Bowman is our biggest goal threat he should be back in the team Saturday, hadn't seen O'Archie until the second half v Southport, as fan I'm very impressed with this lad, big and strong, causes havoc in opposition defences , despite his brace Saturday I still do not think he's going to score a lot of goals, but he will create time and space for Bowman, can't wait to see these two up top Saturday.

[Boroughbrad]

Thanks for the heads up on the traffic. As for the match you probably couldn't have played us at a better time (for you that is). Departing players, injuries and suspensions have hit us hard this last week or so. I don't think we have an available left sided player for Saturday in either defence or midfield lol. Saying that we don't roll over easily and we did well last time out so should be a decent game. Im expecting a mainly backs to the wall give everything performance, and hopefully we can pinch something from a set piece or on the break.

[ferrarilover]

Why the opinion on Duane, Dave?

Matt.

[Dave]

Why the opinion on Duane, Dave?

Matt.

Not sure what you mean here.

[Kit_robin]

Must admit I've had a complete u-turn in my opinion of Duane. I saw all the home pre-season games, plus Totnes and Exeter away games, and quite frankly he looked pretty useless. A couple flashes of average-Ness when he came on against city perhaps, but in general I had no clue as to why CH had signed him.

Since he came on against Southport, however, he has started to reveal what our management team saw. Don't get me wrong, he still looks very raw and he can't head for toffee (disappointing considering his size), but he has shown some good characteristics that hopefully we can coach in to a good player.

Hes quite quick for his size, he holds the ball up quite well and is willing to compete. His passing is half decent and he turns really well when a defender is tight on his back. Perhaps most importantly he's worried every defence he's played against, and made their defenders work really hard, creating space for others or just knackering them out.

Hes still got a long way to go. He definitely needs to add heading to his game, and his shooting needs to improve, but considering his age I'm starting to believe hes a good signing.

He kind of reminds me of Marcus Richardson at the moment- a bit gangly, all looks a bit out of control but can also be effective. Hopefully Hargreaves can turn him into a better player than him though. (Although we did sell Richardson for money amazingly)