Can We Make the Play Offs?

[standupsitdown]

Expanding on my post in the Yeovil match thread, I’ve looked at likely points requirements for 7th place.

An average of the previous four seasons, pro rata for 44 matches, is 69.6 points for 7th.
Based on points per game to date for this season 7th place would be 79.2 points (Stockport).

So based on 4 year average we would need 69.9 points, so another 39.9 = 1.81 / game
So based on pro rata 2021/22 we would need 79.2 points, so another 49.2 = 2.24 / game
Maybe more realistic at this stage in the season to average the two (past seasons & first half this season) so we would need 74.8 points = 2.03 / game

To put this into perspective.
The last 10 games we have averaged 1.60 / game
Last season we averaged 1.90 / game
The average points per games for the league winners in the last four years was 1.96 / game

So, it’s not impossible but it looks as if we’d need to achieve similar results to last season and maybe even better. So top of the league form.

[Brewers boy]

One thing that we do have in our favour, is that we have had no fixtures postponed due to covid and are out of the cups so we shouldn't have a build of fixtures like some of the other clubs.

[portugull]

Also we have 12 Home games to come and 10 away.

[Midlandgull]

If recent form continues, we'd be very close to the playoff spots in about 10-15 games time probably. Getting in some good replacement loans would be key

[lucy6lucy]

It’s the hope that kills.

We are just so inconsistent to make playoffs at the moment. But football is a funny old game,

[Wolborough]

Unlikely with such a small squad.

[brucie]

No

[Nick Potkins]

Mathematically and obviously we still can, however my feeling is we will fall short. We would need to target 70 points plus to make 7th. That is 40 points in 22 games, top of the table form.

Sadly our away form has been poor, as highlighted at Barnet, Aldershot, Tonbridge and Havant (I know two are cup games). We need to focus on building the spine of the team for next season. For me this is a keeper, central defender, center mid and a second target man. To me this is a 'big boys' league, like it or not set plays, strength and height is needed.

For now I will keep believing we can win every game. COYY

[SuperNickyWroe]

It's a no from me.
Unfortunately.

[culmstockgull]

I think its a big ask and will depend solely on who we bring in during January, as a squad we are paper thin in places, especially at the back and any injuries which seem to plague us will only excerbate the situation , we have lost two very good players in sparkes and armstrong who were far superior to our usual loanees. Six weeks ago I ethought mid table security was a difficult ask , now its down to the club to decide how the rest of the season pans out. Talented but untried youngsters,in the main are not the answer, they take too long to get to grips with non league football.

[desperado]

We don't tend to draw many games under Gary Johnson but can we win 13 games out of 22 with a handful of draws thrown in
Possible but unlikely I agree.

[happytorq]

think it's a question that needs to wait until after saturday's game. I think we have the nucleus of a team good enough to put together the kind of run that's required - and we're also improving. But Dagenham at home will be a test as they're the sort of team we need to be getting results against.

I'm very encouraged by the last 3 games; the second half at Eastleigh aside, we've been pretty good in all of them, and showing the grit to get the winner late at Yeovil suggests that "gary time" could be a thing again.

It seems apparent that the top 4 will most likely be Notts, Chesterfield, Stockport, Wrexham (in any order) as they're already playing pretty well and getting results, with the expectation of bringing in more players (especially true of Wrexham given their transfer situation).

But will we end up being any worse than Halifax, Boreham and Solihull (among others). I don't believe we will, but it depends if the deficit can be made up in the remaining games. I would not be at all surprised if we end up going on a 12-15 game unbeaten streak, which may well be good enough to get into the top 7.

[standupsitdown]

Some positives from the fixtures -

We have played up to three games fewer than all bar one of our rivals (Dagenham) and are out of both cups, so will have fewer midweek fixtures. Most weeks we only have one game, whereas some clubs will have two in the majority of weeks until the season ends.

We have twelve home games and ten away to play.

Three of our ten remaining away games are against teams in the bottom four (although Southend last game may be difficult if they need points for safety).

We’ve already played seven of the top nine away, so have the majority of the most difficult games out of the way.

We still have to play eight of the twelve teams above us at home, which although means the fixtures aren’t the easiest, gives us the opportunity to take three points from them, which is probably an advantage for a club needing to make up points.


As has been said, I think that Dagenham is a crucial game, as we need to keep our run going and take three points of a rival for the play offs.

And, of course bringing in the right new players to replace the loanees who have gone will be critical.

[gullintwoplaces]

Can we? Of course we can, I have seen this repeated many times.

Will we? Less than 50:50, depends on injuries/loans/momentum, but hope is what keeps us all interested.

[MellowYellow]

No! but I think our displays will improve as the squad seem to be gelling quite nicely now. Hopefully, we will be ready for the big push next season