standupsitdown wrote: ↑09 Mar 2022, 20:12
I know some people (not many!) still think we have a chance of the play offs so I thought I’d look at the figures again.
We’re now 10 points from 7th, but with a far worse goal difference and would be more than 10 behind if Bromley take more than two points from their two games in hand.
If the 7th placed team continue to gain points at the rate they have for the season to date we would need 77 points. Another 33 from 13 games.
That would be 2.54 per game. Say 11 wins, 2 defeats.
And we'd either need an extra point or to make up a goal difference gap of 19 in 13 games.
Maybe the points total required might be slightly lower as teams are dropping points to each other but to have any chance we’d need to win at least 10 of our last 13 games.
So still not mathematically impossible but extremely unlikely especially as although our form has improved it hasn’t ereached that level.
Why are we still talking about the playoffs
We have been nowhere near 7th and should now set our sights on next season
I've simply posted the relevant figures.
Still of interest I think as some still think we have a chance of making the play offs.
As I said, it's extremely unlikely now.
Good point made about Sutton. I didn't think they'd do well in League Two but they've proved us wrong. It's very hard to predict who will do well or badly in League Two.
The problem with limiting promotion to two sides is an inevitable misalignment of quality. I think the top 8 teams in the NL would comfortably compete in League 2 with their existing squad.
It's not just making the playoffs, we also need to be in with a good chance of winning them or else we will be in the same position as we were this year.
That is, not knowing which league we will be playing in and ending up with all the best players being already signed up.
GJ now has the time and space to check out who to keep, and who to sign on. If supporters are entitled to anything (discuss), it is to expect a stronger more balanced team for next season!
What do you think of that??!!
North Curry House wrote: ↑12 Mar 2022, 16:38
Only the academically challenged are still thinking we can get in the playoffs. No chance whatsoever.
Wow another upbeat positive post!!!! Lets hope the players and manager have a different mind set from our two upbeat previous posts
It ain't over until is over!
There are 12 games to play and we have 8 points+ to catch up. As the bookies odds show we still have a chance. However, its more likely that our role this season will be to be a spoiler to the other aspirants hopes.
We’re now 8 points from 7th, but with a far worse goal difference and Notts County and Bromley have 1 and 3 games in hand.
If the teams above continue to gain points at the rate they have for the season to date we would need 79 points. Another 32 from 12 games.
That would be 2.67 per game. Say 10 wins, 2 draws. And we'd either need an extra point or to make up a goal difference gap of 10 - 20 in 12 games.
However I suspect that the points total required might be slightly lower as teams are dropping points to each other and Bromley’s form isn’t that good (they didn’t look very good at Plainmoor) but to have any chance we’d need to win at least 9 of our last 12 games, plus probably a couple of draws.
So still not mathematically impossible but very unlikely.
Of course if we did reach the play offs we’d have to play two away games then a final but we would go in as a form team and probably having recently picked up points against top teams.
At least the players have kept some interest going and our form has been good since Christmas. I think we need to win at Halifax next week to keep any remote chance of the play offs alive.
I believe like many seasoned torquay fans that this year is a write off in terms of any potential achievement, while I may be accused of negativity the reality is we cannot compete with any of the top clubs in terms of quality and spending, we score too few and concede too many.
If the shambles of last summer is not to be replicated where in the main we acquired very average footballers marginally over five feet tall who supposedly had played football before then we need a full close season with early quality acquisitions and a very thorugh culling of the deadwood of which there are numerous.
Its six weeks since Johnson said that both he and the board have agreed that the squad needs increasing and strengthing but no signings have occured ,my take on that indicates dont waste money on this season, but acquire well in the summer.
While on paper we have a good sized squad the first eleven unfortunetely picks itself when fit , the bench also picks itself because anyone who doesnt make the starting eleven and turns up makes the bench. We havent considered recalling any of the six or seven loanees we have out , three of which cannot make the starting eleven of their loan club which also indicates in all honesty they are not up to national leagie football although slough and
definetely moyse in my book have more than enough talent to play at our level.
