Can We Make the Play Offs?

DB57 · Post by **DB57** » 19 Mar 2022, 20:28

Modgull wrote: ↑19 Mar 2022, 17:48 Can we close this thread down now please?

The most sensible post on this thread for months

North Curry House · Post by **North Curry House** » 19 Mar 2022, 20:36

At last someone with some sense. We have had no chance despite been on our best run of the season.

knightmaregull · Post by **knightmaregull** » 19 Mar 2022, 21:07

The signing of Opi is a clear sign that the club are already looking to and planning for next year. It's all but certain that we will see another exodus of top talent so it's a huge advantage to have certainty of the league we will be in this early so recruits can be secured.

I see Macdonald has a new agent and so imagine he remains keen on a move North which would be a shame.

I'm not sure of the stats but we've not been able to put our feet up this early into a season very often so let's just enjoy the opportunity to give our nerves the year off!

standupsitdown · Post by **standupsitdown** » 19 Mar 2022, 22:09

desperado wrote: ↑19 Mar 2022, 16:47 Standup will be on in a minute telling us how many points we need - please God -no

Here he is!
Ten wins from last eleven games. Obviously isn’t going to happen.
Even Gary Johnson and the optimistic fans on Facebook are going to have to accept it now.
A rare season where Torquay have no chance of going up or down with still a quarter of the fixtures left.
Hopefully we can still get some reasonable results whilst building for next season.

Admiral · Post by **Admiral** » 19 Mar 2022, 22:15

Beat Aldershot and Weymouth we’ll be 6 points off and you’ll all be pondering the maths again. We’re on our way whether you like it or not

DB57 · Post by **DB57** » 20 Mar 2022, 04:31

knightmaregull wrote: ↑19 Mar 2022, 21:07 The signing of Opi is a clear sign that the club are already looking to and planning for next year. It's all but certain that we will see another exodus of top talent so it's a huge advantage to have certainty of the league we will be in this early so recruits can be secured.

I see Macdonald has a new agent and so imagine he remains keen on a move North which would be a shame.

I'm not sure of the stats but we've not been able to put our feet up this early into a season very often so let's just enjoy the opportunity to give our nerves the year off!

So who falls into the category of top talent then?
Lewis is probably the best of a poor bunch but I doubt he would be high on the list of transfer targets for many League 2 Clubs. CLE and Little flatter to deceive week after week and that’s about it ( in my opinion)

Kingsgull83 · Post by **Kingsgull83** » 23 Mar 2022, 16:14

10 games to go (however impossible a feat a believe this is to achieve this is what I think we will need to do to be in with a chance.
1. Win all of our remaining 5 home games (including Notts County and Chesterfield) considering we drew with both of them away not a crazy notion
2. Beat Woking away (again given current form not impossible)
4. Win 1 and draw 2 of the following away games Grimsby, Daggers, Stockport and Southend

This will give us 20 points from a possible 30 ending the season on 70.

If you also ignore the fact this will need the teams above us to win no more than 3 games out of the remaining 10/12 games. We are in with a chance! Right?

Kingsgull83 · Post by **Kingsgull83** » 23 Mar 2022, 16:44

Just to confirm our little or NO hope. P.s I have allot of time on my hands this is the teams above us run in and my predictions. Feel free to Disagree with any predictions. Spoiler alert we will finish where we are now

Notts County
Chesterfield (H) Lose
Southend (A) Draw
Torquay (A) Draw
Kings Lynn (H) Win
Weymouth (H) Win
Dover (A) Win
Aldershot (A) Win
Dover (H) Win
Altrincham (H) Draw
Maidenhead (A) Win
21 Points - Total 81

Boreham Wood
Woking (H) Win
Daggers (A) Draw
Aldershot (A) Win
Dover (H) Win
Wealdstone (A) Draw
Bromley (H) Draw
Southend (A) Draw
Stockport (A) Lose
Wrexham (H) Lose
Yeovil (A) win
Grimsby (A) Draw
Solihull (H) Draw
18 Points - Total 79

Grimsby
Daggers (A) Draw
Chesterfield (A) Lose
Weymouth (A) Draw
Stockport (H) Lose
Kings Lynn (A) Win
Torquay (H) Draw
Barnet (A) Draw
Maidenhead (H) Win
Boreham Wood (H) Draw
Eastleigh (A) Win
14 points - total 70

Daggers
Grimsby (A) Draw
Boreham Wood (H) Draw
Barnet (H) Win
Aldershot (A) Win
Bromley (A) Draw
Kings Lynn (H)Win
Wealdstone (A) Draw
Torquay (H) Draw
Solihull (A) Draw
Wrexham (H) Lose

Points 15 - Total 70

Bromley
Wealdstone (A) Win
Kings Lynn (A) Win
Daggers (H) Draw
Eastleigh (A) Win
Maidenhead (H) Win
Boreham Wood (A) Draw
Aldershot (H) Win
Chesterfield (H) Lose
Solihull (A) draw
Dover (H) Win
Altrincham (H) Win
Barnet (A) Draw
Points 25 - Total 78

Torquay
Total 20 - Points 70

standupsitdown · Post by **standupsitdown** » 23 Mar 2022, 18:58

Kingsgull83 wrote: ↑23 Mar 2022, 16:14 10 games to go (however impossible a feat a believe this is to achieve this is what I think we will need to do to be in with a chance.
1. Win all of our remaining 5 home games (including Notts County and Chesterfield) considering we drew with both of them away not a crazy notion
2. Beat Woking away (again given current form not impossible)
4. Win 1 and draw 2 of the following away games Grimsby, Daggers, Stockport and Southend

This will give us 20 points from a possible 30 ending the season on 70.

If you also ignore the fact this will need the teams above us to win no more than 3 games out of the remaining 10/12 games. We are in with a chance! Right?

Those results would actually give us 73 points. Boreham Wood would only have to get 15 points from their 12 games to match that. Grimsby would have to get 17 from ten games. Dagenham 18 from ten games.

Boreham Wood are on a poor run at the moment and maybe all their games are catching up with them, as are Bromley but unfortunately we need to overtake four teams.

Six of our remaining ten games are against teams above us. Harder to win but opportunity to take points off them.

I still think we need nine wins, possible eight and a draw. Depends whether the wins are against rivals for 7th.

Mathmatically it's possible but I can't see us winning enough games against the top clubs.

Having said that we've done well to keep at least a slight interest going this long.

Admiral · Post by **Admiral** » 26 Mar 2022, 18:57

Admiral wrote: ↑19 Mar 2022, 22:15 Beat Aldershot and Weymouth we’ll be 6 points off and you’ll all be pondering the maths again. We’re on our way whether you like it or not

We certainly are

standupsitdown · Post by **standupsitdown** » 27 Mar 2022, 12:38

As was predicted, six points in a week and some others dropping points have made 7th place look slightly more achievable. But we have to play five games against play off / championship contenders.

We need to overtake four teams. A positive is that Boreham Wood and Bromley are on a run of poor form. Maybe games catching up with Wood who still have three more than us to play. And Bromley are still in the Trophy.

Looking at fixtures and form:

Notts County have very easy fixtures including Dover twice, Kings Lynn & Weymouth. We are the only contender they have to play. I think they’ll get at least 79 points so we won’t catch them.

Grimsby have to play 4 contenders. I think they’ll get about 74 points.

Boreham Wood have to play 5 contenders. I think they’ll get about 72 points.

Dagenham have to play 5 contenders. I think they’ll get about 69 points.

Bromley have to play 4 contenders. I think they’ll get about 70 points.

That would mean that we need 74 points, or 75 if we don’t further improve our goal difference to match others.
Seven wins from last nine games.

If we win all the easier games - Woking, Eastleigh, Maidenhead, Southend, we’d need 9 or 10 points (3 wins) from – Dagenham, Chesterfield, Stockport, Notts Co, Grimsby.

It would of course help if the wins were against Dagenham and particularly Grimsby, which could be a crucial game if we have kept winning most games until then.

So it’s possible but whilst we’re beating lesser sides we haven’t so far looked like consistently achieving those results against top teams.

Dave_Pougher · Post by **Dave_Pougher** » 27 Mar 2022, 15:06

Is the last playoff place achievable? Don’t know, but GJ thinks so so that’s good enough for me.

Do we need massive support for a good atmosphere against Notts County ? DEFINITELY!

Will a win against them set up a rather lush yellow army away day at Woking ?

COYY !

thebigp1 · Post by **thebigp1** » 27 Mar 2022, 19:59

We’re 33/1 with the bookies to finish top 7 which I won’t be having a bet on. The problem is it’s not just 6 points behind 7th, our goal difference means it’s effectively 7 points and even then we have to overtake 4 teams, 2 of which have games in hand. Our run of games is tough.

The best thing for us this season is for Stockport and Wrexham to go up. If Wrexham don’t go up this year they will just outspend everyone else next season. We need a decent finish to this season which helps a rebuild for next season and a proper run at promotion.

Admiral · Post by **Admiral** » 27 Mar 2022, 22:06

The reality is we can’t afford any slip ups, it’s all possible until we lose one. Notts is massive, let’s hope teams don’t gain too much ground next weekend when we’re not playing

DerekDawkinsJnr · Post by **DerekDawkinsJnr** » 28 Mar 2022, 06:45

Notts Co. have been far from convincing in March, 2W 3D 3L. Compare that with our return of 3W 1D 1L.

Looking forward to it - will be a big game and this thread will catch fire if we get a dubya.

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