Staying Up - Relegation Battle

[standupsitdown]

Sadly we now have to consider what will be needed to stay up.

This is the current table.

Team Played Points
Torquay 37 41
Taunton 33 40
Welling 37 40
Truro 32 38
Dartford 37 38
Eastbourne 37 34
Havant 38 29
Dover 38 22

I think we can assume that Dover & Havant are pretty much down, so we need to finish above two of the others.

If teams continue to pick up points pro rata as they have so far this season safety would be 47 points (above Dartford).
We have the best goal difference so probably only need to match points.
So on that basis we’d only need another 6 points.

However, despite Dartford’s current awful form one would expect them to pick up extra points in a relegation fight especially as some opponents will have little to play for. And they did thrash us on a freezing day before Christmas.
It’s a good thing we beat them on Saturday.

Taunton seem to have suddenly found form and are only a point below us with 4 games in hand.

Truro still have to play 14 games, so fixture congestion may well be a factor for them.

Welling have one point less than us and have played the same.

Eastbourne would need to go on a very good run to stay up which is unlikely.

We still have to play Welling, Taunton & Truro away. Key games.

Our last game is home to Havant who will very probably be relegated by then – but we don’t want to leave it to relying on winning the last game.

50 points would seem to be a reasonable estimate of required points (but hopefully less).
So that’s 3 wins.

We only have 3 home games left but all are winnable and Weston & Havant will probably have nothing to play for by then.

Since Christmas we’ve picked up 11 points from 14 games. Pro rata that would take us to 48 points, however since Downes took over we’ve gained 5 points from 4 games, which pro rata would be 52 points.

We should be good enough to get the points – but not if we play like we did on Tuesday.

[CornishGull]

Nine games to play.
Next 3 games - Tonbridge (a), H&R (h), Yeovil (a) can't see us getting anything from those games.
The following 3 - WSM (h), Welling (a), Truro (a) theoretically winnable and make no mistake we've got to win them.
It's going to be squeaky bum time. We probably need 9 points to survive and it could go down to Havant at home on the last day of the season.

As an aside I wonder how Truro are possibly going to fit in all their remaining games, could they possibly face sanctions? As for Truro's former landlords, Plymouth Parkway, they will now play their next two home fixtures at Yate.

[TommyGunn]

Anyone going to Tonbridge from down here needs to remember the M25 is closed this weekend. Nightmare!
About a 6 hour drive via Haywards heath.

[torq2u]

Nine games to play.
Next 3 games - Tonbridge (a), H&R (h), Yeovil (a) can't see us getting anything from those games.
The following 3 - WSM (h), Welling (a), Truro (a) theoretically winnable and make no mistake we've got to win them.
It's going to be squeaky bum time. We probably need 9 points to survive and it could go down to Havant at home on the last day of the season.

As an aside I wonder how Truro are possibly going to fit in all their remaining games, could they possibly face sanctions? As for Truro's former landlords, Plymouth Parkway, they will now play their next two home fixtures at Yate.

All those away games. All that fuel to pay for.

Is Kevin Nicholson coming back to drive the minibus?

[standupsitdown]

It's a Kent derby today.
It would be very helpful to us if Maidstone could beat Dartford.

[TommyGunn]

I think we really need wins on the board before the administrators move in.

Just guessing that this will happen this coming week as we have heard nothing about new owners????

What then will they reduce the squad size to bare bones? Start selling assets like Boots and Laces? Anyone know what to expect?

[UnitedinDevon]

Truro 2-0 up at St Albans
Eastbourne closing the gap currently winning vs taunton
Welling now above us as they are 1-0 up

The relegation threat is real

[standupsitdown]

Today’s results have given Welling and Truro a big step to safety, and brought Eastbourne into a position from where they have a reasonable chance of staying up.

Table now -

Played Points
Welling 38 43
Torquay 38 41
Truro 33 41
Taunton 34 40
Dartford 38 38
Eastbourne 38 37
Havant 38 29
Dover 38 22

We still have a goal difference that is significantly better than everyone except Truro.

50 points should still be safety.
Whether we can get another 9 points must however be doubtful.

Since Christmas we’ve only beaten two teams, both at home and both of them are very poor / poor form – Dover & Dartford.
We only have one similar game left – Havant – our final fixture.

I can’t see us picking up more than 6 points.
If that is the case to stay up we need both Dartford & Eastbourne to win no more than 3 games (10 points Dartford, 11 Eastbourne).
There’s a good chance one of the two will fail to do so but less so both.
Or Taunton and / or Truro to win no more than 2 of their 12 / 13 remaining games. Again unlikely.

It’s not looking good unless our form improves.

[CornishGull]

What then will they reduce the squad size to bare bones? Start selling assets like Boots and Laces? Anyone know what to expect?

An administrator can't just get rid of players unless he honoured their contracts so he might as well keep them on because he has to pay them anyway.
Boots & Laces is part of the stadium , it can't just be hived off, the freehold of the land it stands on belongs to Torbay Council. An administrator wouldn't start selling off assets until the club is liquidated.

[wbw]

An administrator can't just get rid of players unless he honoured their contracts so he might as well keep them on because he has to pay them anyway.

Who on earth told you that?

[CornishGull]

Who on earth told you that?

Just as workers who made redundant are entitled to redundancy pay when their firm goes into administration.

[TommyGunn]

Thanks for that cornishgull.

So I assume the administrators will be doing the job of George Edwards? So he will be first to go? That might lighten the mood around the club.

Found the rules about the embargo.
https://s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/file ... 181166.pdf

[Jpr]

Well as someone has all ready said wish the players would show some fight, I have noticed when you stand and watch on the pop side that none of are players talk to each other or shout to say a player is coming from behind, just silence no COME ON LETS GET AT THEM, if as a player you start getting in to the head of an opposition player wind them up you can affect there game, and with part time players can they afford to get an injury as that would effect there real jobs, mind games do help.

[Torbay Taxman]

Surely an administrator will make a financial judgement in order to ensure creditors etc are able to recover some or even all of the cash they are owed. With regard to our position then it may well be better to continue paying staff to ensure the club can continue playing matches that will generate income in excess of expenditure. Ok whilst the season is in progress but with full time players there is a liability for summer wages when there is no income.
Not an expert on redundancy but are players on contracts as opposed to general payroll terms.
The problem is that players may be concerned they may have payments stopped once the season ends so this factor could be having an effect on individuals and their performances.
There may be someone out there who sees TUFC as a good investment but other than the name there are no real assets to support any investment.

[Dave]

No administrator worth their salt is going to come into a football club and cut playing staff, for a start if TUFC does fully enter administration then 'the football creditor rule' applies meaning all contracted players owed money become creditors of the club, no1 in order of priority, can only presume this applies also to non-league clubs

https://business-insolvency-helpline.co ... ors-rules/ a good read for those interested.

It would perhaps be back office staff who would be vulnerable, although not entirely sure what that would save, we all know the administrators first objective is to save the business and sell it on, a football without enough players, and certain roles like club secretary have to be filled (requirement of FA to have one) can't really be sold I would suggest.