80 Points enough?

Behind-the-Gulls · Post by **Behind-the-Gulls** » 13 Mar 2012, 13:32

Paolo Di Canio reckons that 82 points will be enough for automatic promotion-which Martin Ling agrees with,having taken Orient up with 81.
We are on 63,so can we get the 18-19 points needed? 6 wins from our remaining 11 games on current form doesn't sound too tall an order does it-especially with the likes of Burton,Port Vale,Barnet,Accrington,AFC Wimbledon and Hereford to play.
I think we will do it.as long as we don't get any injuries to key players that keep them out for any length of time.
What do you think?

tufctillidie · Post by **tufctillidie** » 13 Mar 2012, 14:22

Behind-the-Gulls wrote:Paolo Di Canio reckons that 82 points will be enough for automatic promotion-which Martin Ling agrees with,having taken Orient up with 81.
We are on 63,so can we get the 18-19 points needed? 6 wins from our remaining 11 games on current form doesn't sound too tall an order does it-especially with the likes of Burton,Port Vale,Barnet,Accrington,AFC Wimbledon and Hereford to play.
I think we will do it.as long as we don't get any injuries to key players that keep them out for any length of time.
What do you think?

I think it can be acheived BUT with us having the lowest goal difference out of the top 7 with oxford being 3 goals for the better as the second lowest, it could be tight and we'll have to hope that other teams stumble around us.

Matt

AustrianAndyGull · Post by **AustrianAndyGull** » 13 Mar 2012, 14:55

We need to win tonight to put the pressure back on the others. I reckon we'll need other teams to drop points though for us to sneak into an auto spot.

stefano · Post by **stefano** » 13 Mar 2012, 15:27

austrianandygull wrote:We need to win tonight to put the pressure back on the others. I reckon we'll need other teams to drop points though for us to sneak into an auto spot.

The other teams will have plenty of opportunity to drop points with these games between teams in the top 8:-

Saturday 17 March
Cheltenham v Gillingham
Tuesday 20 March
Gillingham v Crawley
Shrewsbury v Cheltenham
Saturday 24 March
Cheltenham v Oxford
Friday 30 March
Southend v Cheltenham
Saturday 14 April
Oxford v Gillingham
Saturday 21 April
Gillingham v Swindon
Saturday 28 April
Oxford v Swindon

In addition to those Torquay have to play Swindon (away), Oxford (away), and Southend (home) and I would fancy an on song motivated Torquay team as we have been for much of the season to get something out of all of those games.

Not one of those teams will fancy knowing that they have to break down a resilient Torquay midfield and defence and that if they manage to do that they come up against Bobby Olejnik.

A J · Post by **A J** » 13 Mar 2012, 15:38

I agree. I said on the way to the game on Saturday, if we win 7 of the last 12 we will be in top three, no doubt. So 6 wins from the last 11 is very possible and should hopefully be enough this season.

Here are the 3rd placed teams recently:

10\11 Wycombe 80 (Shrewsbury 4th with 79)
09\10 Rochdale 82 (Morecambe 73)
08\09 Wycombe 78 (Bury 78)
07\08 Hereford 88 (Stockport 82)
06\07 Swindon 85 (MK Dons 84)
05\06 Orient 81 (Grimsby 78)
04\05 Swansea 80 (Southend 78)

Bigman · Post by **Bigman** » 13 Mar 2012, 15:51

I think with the number of teams challenging for the promotion places and the quality of those teams, a couple more points may be needed for 3rd, perhaps 84 or even 85 allowing for our inferior goal difference. I think this is perfectly achievable as I don't think we'll be overawed or outplayed by anyone in this league any more, but I do think it'll come down to the last day and probably need a bit of luck.

Post by **yellow** » 13 Mar 2012, 15:53

And so the answer is perhaps.

Based on A Jâ€™s info, statistically there is a 71.43% chance that it will be enough.

But then there is that famous quote from history â€“ â€œThere is Buckspeak, damn Buckspeak and then there are statistics.â€

Best leave it to Dinger to sort out?

Post by **Trojan 67** » 13 Mar 2012, 17:26

A J wrote:I agree. I said on the way to the game on Saturday, if we win 7 of the last 12 we will be in top three, no doubt. So 6 wins from the last 11 is very possible and should hopefully be enough this season.

Here are the 3rd placed teams recently:

10\11 Wycombe 80 (Shrewsbury 4th with 79)
09\10 Rochdale 82 (Morecambe 73)
08\09 Wycombe 78 (Bury 78)
07\08 Hereford 88 (Stockport 82)
06\07 Swindon 85 (MK Dons 84)
05\06 Orient 81 (Grimsby 78)
04\05 Swansea 80 (Southend 78)

Aim to get 88 points and that will get us the automatic promotion.

tufc si · Post by **tufc si** » 13 Mar 2012, 18:04

33 points from the remaining games would be marvellous, no pressure lads!!

Post by **Dave** » 13 Mar 2012, 19:27

As pointed out a number of the top 7 clubs have to play each other they can't all win, or have games against sides capable of winning against them, so there is not doubt in my mind 82 points would be enough.

Wether it's us that get's 82 points remain's to be seen, 11 games 6 wins 1 draw 4 defeats, sounds easy enough

Post by **Trojan 67** » 13 Mar 2012, 23:31

Well on the way after tonight towards 88 points.

Glostergull · Post by **Glostergull** » 13 Mar 2012, 23:52

Statistics say that we have averaged 2.33 points per game in the latter half of the season ( December 26th onward ) and that should see us with at least 89.3 points so 89 or 90 should be within reach easily. I won't say if because i want to believe we will do it.
There is one small crumb of comfort. We have only one match which we are not sure of and that is obviously Swindon. I look down the remaining fixtures and there are non there apart that make me wonder if we will win.. There is room for some results to go not quite our way ie a draw when we should win.
Swindon on the other hand have 2 tricky fixtures. Ours plus Bristol Rovers. Now I know Rovers are way down the table but they are coming back and agains't Swindon they can raise their game to a level where they can beat them. I feel this will be a banana skin for Swindon if they are not at their best. Their run up is like ours apart from that. The match we have with them will be a real 6 pointer. A draw will be inconclusive for either team. Only a win will tell who is real championship contender as it will be a big mountain to climb for us if they win. Having said that, I have real belief in our team this time. And when we go up I have real belief we will stay up providing we keep hold of Martin and Shaun.

okeygull · Post by **okeygull** » 14 Mar 2012, 14:27

Another fantastic win last night . The lads showing real belief and characther. I feel that 82-83 points will be the minimum this year so feel that five wins
and a draw could potentially do the trick.

Obviously its far too early to count our chickens but wouldnt it be ironic if we needed to get something from the Crewe
game at home to get automatically promoted. Would remind me of a day that will never ever be forgotten

Gullscorer · Post by **Gullscorer** » 14 Mar 2012, 18:01

okeygull wrote:Another fantastic win last night . The lads showing real belief and characther. I feel that 82-83 points will be the minimum this year so feel that five wins
and a draw could potentially do the trick.

Obviously its far too early to count our chickens but wouldnt it be ironic if we needed to get something from the Crewe
game at home to get automatically promoted. Would remind me of a day that will never ever be forgotten

And that day was: ....? 8/

okeygull · Post by **okeygull** » 14 Mar 2012, 18:33

A game which involved a police dog called Bryn and a very late equaliser

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