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Let's look from the centre outwards as well as from all angles looking in.

If we keep getting so called crap ties at home that are winnable, then we are only three ties away from our third appearance at Wembley in four years.

It's possible it could be four in four years if we win through to the playoff final.

Edit : We might win the semi final and make it five in four years.

After the initial sense of huge disappointment that we didn't get one of the really big boys, I am coming around to the idea that this draw really isn't so bad.

Let's face it, if we are going to be drawn at home it really doesn't make too much difference who we draw as far as the finances are concerned as we can only pack in just under 6000 regardless and a home draw against Derby (if they should get through against Crawley) would surely see close to a sell out anyway.

What it does really open up though is the possibility of a win and the chance to reach the Fifth Round for the first time in our history and surely then if we were to reach the last sixteen we would be rewarded with a real biggie? Not forgetting the £90k that we would bank in prize money either!

That said, if we could manage a draw against Derby that would bring its rewards as well - outside of the top dozen Prem sides they are as well supported as anyone. Their current home average is in excess of 26000 (only Leeds are averaging higher in the Championship) and they are at least on a par with the more glamourous(?) likes of Stoke, Wolves and Birmingham. So, we should get a decent wedge of money if we were to earn a replay.

I would have thought there is a chance of TV money for this tie - although it might be a slim one admittedly. The TV guys generally like to cover one or two of the "minnows" and they prefer them to be at home as clearly it increases the possibility of an upset. So, if they use that criteria then surely it's between us v Derby or Stevenage v Reading ? The other two League 2 survivors have tough looking away ties at Burnley and Sheffield Weds. I would have thought that if the worst should happen then surely following the progress of Crawley - as the only surving Non League side (and obviously giantkillers of Derby) might see the cameras turn up for that one too.

Understandably as a spectacle, should Crawley win through tomorrow, then the ground is only likely to be barely half full and given the squad they have put together there is every chance that they could beat us - which would be horrible given who they have got as Manager and Assistant! However, we would quite rightly start as slight favourites and surely we will never have a better chance of reaching the last sixteen!

CP

You're right! A game versus Derby is VERY winnable at the mo'! Look at Derby's away form. And, if it IS them, we could well draw the cameras to li'l ol' Torquay!

If the creepies turn up, the cameras are also likely to arrive as it's the battle of the minnows for a place in the last 16!

As it is, there are no glamour ties in the rest of the draw, IMHO.

I feel better now, or is that the glass of Glenfiddich I have wafting it's aroma up my nostrils?!

Cheers

Bruce

Dissapointing draw however it could have been worse ,much worse,there is no gaurantee of beating Crawley at home so for me Derby please.

It is still winable,and will bring in more money, Derby will fill our away for a cup match and there will more intrest in the match with the i cant be bothered locals.

Now the 4th Round draw has sunk in and the consensus of opinion is the tie is winnable irrespective of who we play, then who would we like to draw in the 5th Round ?

As we are likely to get crap draws all the way to Wembley, then I ll take a home draw against Stevenage or Reading, or the winners of Sheffield Wednesday/Wycombe/Hereford.

Another huge disappointment but we're used to it now. It's a dreadful draw all round though. No team in League Two have been paired with a Premier League side.

I just have my fingers crossed for a Derby win. Reckon we could break the 5,000 barrier at Stade de Plainmoor if that happens. Derby should certainly sell out their allocation and are a bigger club than quite a few top-flight sides. Plus, it's winnable. Even a draw would see us sweep up a small windfall in the replay. As for Crawley, I can't stand the thought of being knocked out by that mob front of 2,500. That would be a cruel way to end our heroic run.

Either way, we're highly unlikely to be on TV. Southampton v Man Utd is a shoe-in, Notts County v Man City/Leicester will be shown live, then you've got a couple of all-Prem ties which will no doubt be shoved down our throats at the expense of a potential upset involving a Championship v L2 clash.

I just don't fancy us against Crawley and the two thugs in charge. I would rather be the underdog and not the favourite.

Also there is a chance of a capacity crowd against Derby.

Come on the Rams!

it is a great draw for us, am not bothered who we get, into the last 16 of the greatest cup competition in the world,thats where will be in a few short weeks,then we can start to make some serious cash,we have nothing to fear guys from either of these 2 teams, bring it on,i know alot of you wont agree with me, but am of strong opinion we can go further in the cup this year,theres always a lower ranked team that does well, why shouldnt it be us this year, enjoy the ride guys, it could get bumpy ha ha ..............simon

The only reason I would wish to play crawley is the chane to revive the following chant

"One man couldn't lift, couldn't lift Steve Evans.
"One man and his forklift truck, couldn't lift Steve Evans.
"Two men couldn't lift, couldn't lift Steve Evans.....(repeat to 11).

otherwise - Derby please, who I think are beatable

I think some people have been very dismissive of Crawley. They have been throwing money around like there is no tomorrow and have the look of a squad who would be very competitive in league 1 or 2. They'd be more likely to play our kind of football, there would be no shock to them coming to Plainmoor and we always do badly against Evans' sides ( I think we have only beaten the fat man once, unless someone has better memories than me). I could see us losing this.

Derby on the other hand, won't fancy a wet and windy Plainmoor and a shock would be on the cards. The best scenario would be us getting a replay at their place - that'll get us around £200k. It could be more financially worthwhile for us to lose a replay at Derby, than to beat Crawley at home and then lose at home in the 5th Round (maybe - I've not done any detailed maths on it!).

Either way, I'll be watching tomorrow night with interest!

Dunno about a glass of gelnfiditch wafting Northumbergull. You sure no one broke wind.
Ohh definatly a dry blackthorn waft :Oops:

Well, let us use our Conference experience to our advantage. Not one of us has seen a Crawley match this season (I will hear arguments against this, but they will have to be compelling) so none of us could say how good they are. However, our own experience of the conference tells us that, every year, one team dominates totally. There are then a group of a half dozen contenders, then the rest of the rubbish. This season, it seems there are two teams who have managed to be head and shoulders above the others. Wimbledon and Crawley are both miles in advance of all the others in the division.
Let us now equate this season to those of which we had direct experience and, as such, may consider ourselves expert witnesses.
In our experience, the team which dominates the Conference season amounts to little more than an average L2 side. As evidence of this, I cite Aldershot in 2008/09. In 2007/08, they finished top of the Conference with 101 points. Their first season in L2 concluded with The Shots in 15th place and a goal difference of -21. They conceded the highest number of goals of any side not relegated.

Meanwhile, Burton Albion took the Conference title with 88 points, although, as you will recall, with 6 weeks to run, they did look as if they might surpass the 3-figure points mark. The season following (2009/10) Burton Albion finished 13th with a neutral goal difference.

We all remember the performances and general reverence with which first Aldershot and latterly Burton were viewed during our Conference years. They were, seemingly, winning every week and handsomely too. They were, doubtless, the most accomplished teams in the Conference in their respective promotion years. In much the same vein as Crawley Town this season. Given the similarities, I feel it would not be beyond reason to extrapolate that Crawley Town are to be viewed in exactly the same manner as Aldershot and Burton. That is to say they are a summer transfer window away from being a distinctly average L2 side.

Those who suggest that Derby would be an easier game, I fear, are succumbing to the idea that, in light of their spending and current position in the Conference table, they are a considerably better side than they are.
By way of direct comparison, I would suggest that we imagine the match was Stevenage v Derby County, then we see which side we would rather face three weeks from now?

The above is a reasoned argument based purely on evidence, as to why we should favour a match against Crawley Town, it does NOT necessarily mean that I, as the sole author of the argument, believe that we should be rooting for that God awful Evans ****!

In point of fact, I too feel that a matchup with Derby is the preferable outcome. For reasons NOT based in any way, in fact. This is, lest we forget, the FA Cup.

Matt.

SuperNickyWroe wrote:you were on the ball there mate!

did I beat you to it?

ferrarilover wrote:Well, let us use our Conference experience to our advantage. Not one of us has seen a Crawley match this season (I will hear arguments against this, but they will have to be compelling) so none of us could say how good they are. However, our own experience of the conference tells us that, every year, one team dominates totally. There are then a group of a half dozen contenders, then the rest of the rubbish. This season, it seems there are two teams who have managed to be head and shoulders above the others. Wimbledon and Crawley are both miles in advance of all the others in the division.
Let us now equate this season to those of which we had direct experience and, as such, may consider ourselves expert witnesses.
In our experience, the team which dominates the Conference season amounts to little more than an average L2 side. As evidence of this, I cite Aldershot in 2008/09. In 2007/08, they finished top of the Conference with 101 points. Their first season in L2 concluded with The Shots in 15th place and a goal difference of -21. They conceded the highest number of goals of any side not relegated.

Meanwhile, Burton Albion took the Conference title with 88 points, although, as you will recall, with 6 weeks to run, they did look as if they might surpass the 3-figure points mark. The season following (2009/10) Burton Albion finished 13th with a neutral goal difference.

We all remember the performances and general reverence with which first Aldershot and latterly Burton were viewed during our Conference years. They were, seemingly, winning every week and handsomely too. They were, doubtless, the most accomplished teams in the Conference in their respective promotion years. In much the same vein as Crawley Town this season. Given the similarities, I feel it would not be beyond reason to extrapolate that Crawley Town are to be viewed in exactly the same manner as Aldershot and Burton. That is to say they are a summer transfer window away from being a distinctly average L2 side.

Those who suggest that Derby would be an easier game, I fear, are succumbing to the idea that, in light of their spending and current position in the Conference table, they are a considerably better side than they are.
By way of direct comparison, I would suggest that we imagine the match was Stevenage v Derby County, then we see which side we would rather face three weeks from now?

The above is a reasoned argument based purely on evidence, as to why we should favour a match against Crawley Town, it does NOT necessarily mean that I, as the sole author of the argument, believe that we should be rooting for that God awful Evans ****!

In point of fact, I too feel that a matchup with Derby is the preferable outcome. For reasons NOT based in any way, in fact. This is, lest we forget, the FA Cup.

Matt.

If your basing who is the better side on fact, surely you need look no further than who wins the tie tonight, we will then either way be facing the better side!

Not even close to true. This goes back to the old playground argument that if Man Utd beat Chelsea, then West Ham beat Man Utd, West Ham must then be better than Chelsea.
Surely Mav, you are sufficiently experienced in football to realise that the better team wins, perhaps, 70% of matches played. Fewer still in the FA Cup.
With the best will in the world, there is no possible way to argue that Stevenage are a better team than Newcastle, but over those particular 90 minutes, they scored more goals.
Sorry old man, but no dice.

Matt.