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There seems to be a mix of opinion on whether we will get out of this situation or whether it’s relegation. Since early in the season I have thought we are in big trouble and nothing has changed my mind.

Bookmakers currently have us at 4/7 to finish in the bottom 4, so about a 64% chance we go down.

Looking at what is required to stay up points wise it varies season by season and there are a couple of seasons with fewer games but the team finishing 20th has had the following

21/22 - Aldershot 43
20/21 - Woking 33 (42 games)
19/20 - Wrexham (Covid) 43
18/19 - Boreham Wood 52
17/18 - Barrow 49
16/17 - Guisley 51

A rough guess we are going to need an absolute minimum of 40 points but likely higher and could well be 50+. We have 27 games left so will have to see a reasonable improvement from what we have done so far to stay up.

Will we do it?

The big challenge I see is that the same problems persist, irrespective of who is in the starting XI and that is extremely concerning.

The squad depth is what worries me. There’s also the issue of getting all of our loanees on at the same time, especially now Evans is back.

If we can sign Ellis permanently I think we will stay up. I doubt we’ll have Wearne all season, the same with Goodwin. I’m still struggling to work out where Evans’ best position is. He’d do well in a 3 up front I think. Jarvis holds the ball up well, he needs pace around him.

Admiral wrote: ↑17 Nov 2022, 07:52 The squad depth is what worries me. There’s also the issue of getting all of our loanees on at the same time, especially now Evans is back.

If we can sign Ellis permanently I think we will stay up. I doubt we’ll have Wearne all season, the same with Goodwin. I’m still struggling to work out where Evans’ best position is. He’d do well in a 3 up front I think. Jarvis holds the ball up well, he needs pace around him.

I don’t think Ellis is the answer. Things haven’t exactly tightened up since his arrival and his lack of pace and poor distribution has been exposed time and again.
There’s also the issue of his partner/wife being a northern girl so a move down south to a less than attractive - football wise- location might prove problematic.
The damage was done with the poor summer recruitment and the attempts to shore it up with loan signings.
We are in big trouble now that’s for sure

I would say that a 64% chance of us going down is about right. We need to see big improvements immediately. Is Ellis the answer, I doubt it myself but we probably could do with his experience.
GJ is going to have to work miracles during the second half of the season. I think we need to stick with him though as I don't see anyone else that we can attract being up to it.

I dont think Ellis is the answer either. Been a good pro but his legs seem to have gone. You cant play him in a flat back 4 with Hall and Lapslie in midfield.

I'd rather have 400 games experience than pace as a centre back. Reading the game more important. Have you watched the league games he's played or just the two games on TV against the obviously much quicker pace of Derby ?
I'm not sure exactly who people think we are going to sign at centre back if Ellis goes ! Let's bring back Omar and Marshall that'll improve things !

It was interesting to read in this article about our situation a few years ago when Nathan Smith was on loan from Port Vale. We were 12 points adrft at one stage, but somehow avoided the drop:
https://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/sport/f ... er-7825136
Now there was a great young player - I'm surprised he hasn't gone further up the leagues. Kevin Ncholson used to describe him as 'A force Of Nature'. Looking back it was remarkable what Nicholson achieved with absolutely no money at all - now of course assistant manager at Exeter.

somersetgull wrote: ↑17 Nov 2022, 15:15 No. End of thread.

It's between us and Gateshead for battle of lowest points total ever.

People who think we will stay up because we did ok v Derby apparently.

Blimey. Open your eyes.

Been a site admin long have we?

I said yesterday that I think we'll stay up,but looking at the run of games,our squad,and the defensive situation,I'm really on the fence with this topic,I still think Halstead,Hall,Moxey,Ellis, Lapslie and Martin when he returns are still decent/solid NL standard players,it's all the others around them that aren't up to it, extremely poor signings, inexperience is so evident, Goodwin and Jarvis for me the jury's out on both of them.. Brilliant comment/post about Kevin Nicholson,what he did at the club,with zero funds in the most testing of circumstances shouldn't be forgotten,and a top bloke with it.

Regardless of our playing squad our chances of escaping relegation improved slightly today, Southend got hit with a winding up order by HMRC, owing upwards of 750K, which they have to settle by 18th January 2023, the southend supporters club paid all their saved monies in covering the non playing staff's wages last month. It is unfortunate but they will not be the last.

thebigp1 wrote: ↑16 Nov 2022, 21:00 Bookmakers currently have us at 4/7 to finish in the bottom 4, so about a 64% chance we go down.

yet again I must state that bookmakers odds have nothing to do with the actual chances of a team doing...anything.

No, we won't get relegated. I'll lay anybody evens if they're that convinced.

Maybe the guy (presumably) who said we'd be fighting with Gateshead for the 'lowest points total ever' will take me up on that. Although I suspect that - like most of these types - they'll disappear without a trace when things do improve.

It will no doubt be another rebuild next season whatever league we are in. Will any of those mentioned above be offered a new contract ?

SuperNickyWroe wrote: ↑17 Nov 2022, 16:13 Been a site admin long have we?

Be very careful when posting stuff concerning Somerset Gull, he has special powers you now. He has been supporting Torquay for over 5 years before he was born!!!!!!!

dawlishmatt wrote: ↑17 Nov 2022, 16:40 Be very careful when posting stuff concerning Somerset Gull, he has special powers you now. He has been supporting Torquay for over 5 years before he was born!!!!!!!

In view of this, I hesitate to point out that we will do incredibly well to beat Dover's points records in both of the last two seasons.