What is required

[View1]

Perhaps its all a little too late but as any Torquay fan you always live in hope!

With that in mind I couldnt help but look at some stats to see what COULD be required-

Looking at the last 10 seasons the average points total for the teams finishing 20th = 48.3 (highest= 54, lowest= 44), we have 34 points with 7 games left. Due to our goal difference we would almost certainly need a point more than the team finishing 21st so need to look for 49 points. With that in mind we need to win 5 games and lose 2 to hit that target or win 4 games, draw 2, lose 1 to hit 48 points (which on average wouldnt be enough!).

I also looked at the fate of those relegated and rather alarmingly out of the 40 teams that went down in the last 10 years (some more than once of course) only 2 are currently back in the conference and only 1 (Forest Green) are playing league football... if stats are your thing then its fair to say its looking fairly grim unless we pull off the greatest of great escapes!

[Hammdog2601]

We must beat Woking, Build some momentum. If we dp manage to beat them, Then were dragging them into the mix.

Hope and Prey Tranmere beat Solihull & flyde beat Barrow. Which I can really see happening. If this happens We would be 4 points behind them both. With a game in hand over them Solihull... However this is Torquay.. I still think we are gone, Trying to see a sight of positives

[standupsitdown]

Sadly other with Solihull & Barrow picking up a point each today from games we’d hoped they’d lose and with their results last week, despite winning today we’re probably a bit worse off than we were a week ago.

At this stage of the season I think we have to look at the teams around us rather than historical points required for survival.

We need to overtake two of Solihull, Barrow & Woking.

Solihull have 41 points and we can’t expect them to pick up less than 9 points from their remaining fixtures, taking them to 50 points.

Barrow have 41 points and we can’t expect them to pick up less than 12 points from their remaining fixtures, taking them to 53 points.

Woking have 44 points and harder fixtures so may well pick up only 6 points or less from their remaining fixtures, taking them to 50 points.

Given our inferior goal difference we would then need 51 points to survive. We currently have 34 points so that’s 17 points from 7 games. So we need 6 wins. A couple of weeks ago we thought that 6 wins from the last 8 would be enough but teams above us are picking up more points than we hoped so now it looks as if we still need six more wins.


Monday 2nd April
NATIONAL LEAGUE
• Tranmere Rovers15:00Solihull Moors
Saturday 7th April
NATIONAL LEAGUE
• Hartlepool United15:00Solihull Moors
Tuesday 10th April
NATIONAL LEAGUE
• Solihull Moors19:45Maidstone United
Saturday 14th April
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Solihull Moors15:00Guiseley
Saturday 21st April
NATIONAL LEAGUE
• Fylde15:00Solihull Moors
Saturday 28th April
NATIONAL LEAGUE
• Solihull Moors12:30Eastleigh
•
•
• Monday 2nd April
NATIONAL LEAGUE
• Barrow15:00FyldeAFC
Saturday 7th April
NATIONAL LEAGUE
• Leyton Orient15:00Barrow
Tuesday 10th April
NATIONAL LEAGUE
• Barrow19:45Eastleigh
Saturday 14th April
NATIONAL LEAGUE
• Barrow15:00Ebbsfleet
Tuesday 17th April
NATIONAL LEAGUE
• Guiseley19:45Barrow
Saturday 21st April
NATIONAL LEAGUE
• Aldershot Town15:00Barrow
Tuesday 24th April
NATIONAL LEAGUE
• Bromley19:45Barrow
Saturday 28th April
NATIONAL LEAGUE
• Barrow12:30Chester

• Torquay United15:00Woking
Saturday 7th April
NATIONAL LEAGUE
• Dagenham & Redbridge15:00Woking
Tuesday 10th April
NATIONAL LEAGUE
• Maidenhead United19:45Woking
Saturday 14th April
NATIONAL LEAGUE
• Woking15:00Bromley
Saturday 21st April
NATIONAL LEAGUE
• Guiseley15:00Woking
Saturday 28th April
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Woking12:30Dover Athletic

[Dazza]

You produce a similar 4 point behind equasion if you take our game in hand ( Guiseley) and call it as a likely three points. You can tonight look at things from a number of viewpoints and say it's is not all over just yet. We have 7 games five of them at home I think - if our ground turned into Fortress Plainmoor it could JUST happen. Unlikely- very probably - but not impossible.

[nickbrod]

I would suggest that "our ground" with all this rain - and more to come - will only be suitable for growing rice!

[CP Gull]

Haha! Someone (Ian Whiting) is not very good at Maths ....

He has RELEGATED Guiseley already, figuring that the maximum number of points they can now attain is only 40 .... whereas in reality they can (mathematically) still reach 50!! Oh dear!!!

http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/s ... al_League/

The story ....

Ten-man Guiseley relegated from National League

Guiseley 1 Leyton Orient 3

Ten man Guiseley tumbled to a home defeat against Leyton Orient that sealed the club’s relegation from the Vanarama National League with eight games to go.

The basement boys’ maximum points haul is a possible 40 while Barrow and Solihull Moors, the clubs either side of the current safety mark, have already banked 41.

Sorry Ian, but 8 (wins) x 3 points = 24 points .... added to their existing 26 points .... 26+24 =50 :slap:

[Teigngull]

Haha! Someone (Ian Whiting) is not very good at Maths ....

He has RELEGATED Guiseley already, figuring that the maximum number of points they can now attain is only 40 .... whereas in reality they can (mathematically) still reach 50!! Oh dear!!!

http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/s ... al_League/

The story ....

Ten-man Guiseley relegated from National League

Guiseley 1 Leyton Orient 3

Ten man Guiseley tumbled to a home defeat against Leyton Orient that sealed the club’s relegation from the Vanarama National League with eight games to go.

The basement boys’ maximum points haul is a possible 40 while Barrow and Solihull Moors, the clubs either side of the current safety mark, have already banked 41.

Sorry Ian, but 8 (wins) x 3 points = 24 points .... added to their existing 26 points .... 26+24 =50 :slap:

I suggest , before you start crowing, check out Guiseleys opponents for the remainder of the season & the rest of their closest rivals (I can't be bothered at this time of the day ), there will be certain permutations where Guiseley cannot catch 5th from bottom.
Surely Ian Whiting must of checked it out, there cannot be a equally shoddy paper out there like our local rag , can there ?

[CP Gull]

Teigngull: I suggest , before you start crowing, check out Guiseleys opponents for the remainder of the season & the rest of their closest rivals (I can't be bothered at this time of the day ), there will be certain permutations where Guiseley cannot catch 5th from bottom.

Err no need to check Teigngull. If you read the article, he simply states that the maximum number of points Guiseley can get is only “a possible 40” - when in FACT it is a “possible 50”. It’s simply that he cant add up - unless I cant? 26+24 = 50 right?

The FACT is that if Guiseley win all their remaining games then they reach 50 points! I accept that that doesn’t GUARANTEE anyone staying up but it certainly doesnt relegate them with eight games to go either!

The basement boys’ maximum points haul is a possible 40 while Barrow and Solihull Moors, the clubs either side of the current safety mark, have already banked 41.

[Teigngull]

Teigngull: I suggest , before you start crowing, check out Guiseleys opponents for the remainder of the season & the rest of their closest rivals (I can't be bothered at this time of the day ), there will be certain permutations where Guiseley cannot catch 5th from bottom.

Err no need to check Teigngull. If you read the article, he simply states that the maximum number of points Guiseley can get is only “a possible 40” - when in FACT it is a “possible 50”. It’s simply that he cant add up - unless I cant? 26+24 = 50 right?

The FACT is that if Guiseley win all their remaining games then they reach 50 points! I accept that that doesn’t GUARANTEE anyone staying up but it certainly doesnt relegate them with eight games to go either!

The basement boys’ maximum points haul is a possible 40 while Barrow and Solihull Moors, the clubs either side of the current safety mark, have already banked 41.

Yes there's nowt wrong with your maths skill for sure.
If there's ever a sports reporters job vacancy at our uninformative, at least 2 weeks behind with the REAL SCOOPS, local snooze paper I wouldn't hesitate putting his name forward to our uninspiring, pedantic, dear editor friend of the forum.

[Cruisinho]

Let’s keep it simple. We have to win every game. That will give us 55 points and safety.

They say it’s the hope it kills you. Well I can assure you I have no hope of us doing that.

[westyorkshiregull]

I agree what is needed to win every game now....

Win Monday first

[View1]

Of course we have to win every game but personally I always like to see what the par score is on average to see if we have any realistic chance of survival. History indicated 5 wins and 2 loses would give us a fighting chance.

[nickbrod]

If any club is capable of pulling off a hat-trick of #GreatEscapes it's ..........

[westyorkshiregull]

Need to win Monday and get within sniffing distance of the teams above ....its a big ask must win Monday

Remember after the 87 game the hearld headline was ' never again ' lol.

[Cruisinho]

For what it’s worth, I think we will win on Monday (if it’s on!). But it’s the games after that against Dover and Fylde which I can’t see is winning. 2 teams fighting for the playoffs. We might win 1, but not both.